![]() was developed with the motivation to help prevent the outbreak of new internal armed conflicts (civil wars). Most importantly, the researchers have now added a sub-national view that shows outbreak and conflict risks for grid-cells all around the world.Īs the world watches the horrors of the war in Ukraine, the motivation to prevent more wars should be as high as ever.The prevention view allows users to focus on our forecasts for countries without an ongoing armed conflict.The conflict view shows outbreak risk for countries without internal armed conflict and escalation risks for countries with an ongoing conflict.The webpage now includes forecasts of conflict risk for more than 65,000 locations in the world. Users of the webpage can now switch between three different views: Their method has benefitted from more than 8 years of research, published in the American Political Science Review, the Journal of the European Economics Association and International Interactions. Hannes Mueller (IAE-CSIC and BSE) and Christopher Rauh (University of Cambridge) have relaunched, a site that provides forecasts for outbreaks of violence and escalations into armed conflict.
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